Members of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the House of Representatives are locked in a battle. Many knew that such duel would be fought, but a few predicted the shape it is currently taking. The fight is over who takes the baton from Hon Aminu Tambuwal as the speaker of the Green chamber in June. APC, having won over 200 seats, will produce the leadership of the chamber.
Though critical bills like the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) and 2015 Appropriation are on the table of the chamber, the main issue on the card is who the successor of Tambuwal will be. For that reason, prominent APC ranking lawmakers have commenced intense campaign to get their colleagues to back their aspiration . So far, the front runners are seven in number. They are from five of the six geo-political zones. They include Hon Pally Iriase (Edo, APC), Hon Jibrin Abdulmumuni (Kano, APC), Hon Yakubu Dogara (Bauchi, APC) Hon Hon Femi Gbajabiamila (Lagos, APC), Hon Mohammed Mongunu (Borno, APC) and Hon Ajibola Famurewa Isreal (Osun, APC)
APC zoning
As would be expected, all the aspirants are not ready to backdown. But some would be compelled to take such step in the next few days when the leadership of APC decides on the zone the number 4 office should go to. If the party does not handle it well, there might be a repeat of the 2011 scenario where Tambuwal emerged speaker despite the zoning of the office to South West. This was not taken kindly by the presidency and many PDP chieftains who felt that Tambuwal, who hails from North West, the same zone with the Vice President, was working against the interest of the party. He called the bluff of the party and aligned with the then Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and defeated Hon Mulikat Adeola Akande who was the candidate of PDP.
The current aspirants are unlikely to take such path because of the grave implication that may go with doing that. The North East, North West, North Central , South West and South South are looking forward to having the office zoned to them. Right now, two plum offices – President and Vice president – are held by North West and South West. The sharing of other political offices, especially the House speakership, may not pay blind eye to these offices already in the hands of these two zones .
The Senate President
The outcome of the contest for the Senate presidency will have a spill-over effect on the House. Three front-runners for the number three office are former governors of Kwara, Benue and Gombe states, Dr. Bukola Saraki, George Akume and Danjuma Goje. Many believe that Saraki, who is from the North Central, is likely to get it because of the massive role he played in the victory of APC. He is generally regarded as the leader of the party in the North Central, even though Akume, who was with ACN before the merger that gave birth to APC, is a force in the zone. Those who root for Saraki see him as a more suave politician who will be more tactical and deft in the handling of the Senate than other aspirants to the office .
If Saraki emerges the Senate president, it means that Reps from the North Central will be ruled out in the contest for the speaker of the House. It will now, arguably, be a straight fight between the South South and North East. However, in a situation where APC zones the office to North East and Goje picks it, the battle will shift to South South and North Central. In that case the like of Hon Zakari Mohammed, who is believed to have buried his ambition for the office on account of the aspiration of Saraki for Senate presidency .
For those who have already unveiled their ambition for the number 4 office, they are hinging their chances on a number of factors. Top in the list is their personal accomplishments. This is how they stand.
Pally Iriase
A two-term member, Iriase who represents Owan East/West Constituency is a known figure in the House. A chartered accountant, the lawmaker, before coming to the House in 2011, was the Secretary to the Edo State Government. He had earlier served as deputy speaker in the stats as well as a council chairman.
He served as a member of the National Strategy Committee of All Progressives Congress (APC) under the Chairmanship of Governor Babatunde Raji Fashola of Lagos State.
One thing that goes for Iriase is that he i.s respected for his fecundity. He is riding on his vast experience and robust relationship with other colleagues as well as party. He is likely to get the sympathy of many of his colleagues who believe that shutting him out means shutting out the South South from the plum office. A lawmaker who pleaded for anonymity said: “I think on sympathy ground and on merit, Pally has a case. We are watching to see how things will go. At the end of the day we will be guided by the decision of our great party.”
Iriase’s drawback is that he is seen by some of his colleagues as easily infuriated. “Pally is my good friend, he is cerebral and is not new to legislative duties, but he flares up easily,” a lawmaker, who does not want his name mentioned said .
More than any other contestant, Iriase is likely to get the support of his colleagues in PDP .
Femi Gbajabiamila
Currently the House Minority Leader, Gbajabiamila is a popular figure in the chamber. He is deep and has a good grasp of both the constitution and the rules of the House. In terms of charisma and a good understanding of the job, Gbajabiamila ranks high among his colleagues. He also enjoys a good relationship with the leadership of APC. If the party zones the office to South West, he is unlikely to get a tough challenge from his colleagues from the zone. The greatest challenge the lawmaker has is convincing the party to zone the office to South West, the same zone the vice president comes from.
“Femi would have easily picked that position but I doubt if that will happen because it will be difficult to convince many people that there is nothing wrong with the Vice President and the Speaker coming from the same zone”, a lawmaker said.
He continued: “He is a good legislator; he will make a good speaker, but I don’t think Nigerians will gloss over the issue of coming from the same zone with Prof Osibanjo.”
That is not the only thing that counts against Gbajabiamila. He is unlikely to get the vote of PDP members who see him as an enemy. In virtually all the battles that APC and PDP waged, Gbajabiamila was the arrowhead in ensuring that PDP was decimated. PDP lawmakers may consider the contest for speakership as an opportunity to pay the minority leader back.
Among his colleagues, Gbajabiamila is seen as a stingy person . “Many of us know him as a stingy man. He is not generous. That may count against him,” the lawmaker said.
Yakubu Dogara
Hon. Dogara is considered by many as an embodiment of knowledge,intelligence and experience.
Currently the chairman, House Committee on House Services, an influential committee, Dogara contested against Tambuwal for the office in 2011.
A lawyer by profession, Dogara, who hails from Bauchi State, enjoys huge respect of his lawmakers colleagues, who sometime look up to him for guidance. His contributions to debates on motions and Bills are apt, and insightful.
Although a PDP member then, Dogara led the debate on January 8, 2012, during the first Special Session of the House of Representatives on fuel subsidy removal, which resulted into street protest nationwide for eight days. During that debate, he told President Jonathan to listen to the voices of the Nigerian people who were in the street protesting and he said: “The voice of the people, is the voice of God.”
Even though his constituency of Bogoro/Dass/Tafawa-Balewa was a stronghold of the PDP, he, at the risk of losing his seat, was among the first set of 37 members who defected to the APC in December 2013 and led his people to join the party.
Those who are backing him to succeed Tambuwal believe that a vote for him is a vote for stability, accountability, credibility and integrity. Some however accuse him of being arrogant . He has a good chance if the office is zoned to North East by APC.
Abdulmumin Jibril Currently Chairman House Committee on Finance, Jibril is a known name in the House. He is also a member of committees on foreign affairs, gas, electoral matters, youth development and special duties. Before coming into politics, he was a successful businessman, a university lecturer and a philanthropist.
From Kano State, Jibril is respected for his independent mindedness and vast understanding of socio-political issues. His committee constantly kept ministries, and agencies as well as the ministry of finance on their toes. He believes that his selling point is that he is, by virtue of his extensive contacts and exposure, most positioned to raise the stature and profile of the House to a lofty height, comparable to parliaments in known democracies.
While many lawmakers may not have any problem casting their vote for Jibril, his greatest obstacle may be the zone he hails from. He is from North West, the same zone with the President-elect, Gen Buhari. Although his argument is that Nigeria has outgrown such sentiment, it is left for APC leadership to buy into his argument .
Monguno Mohammed Tahir
A former Attorney General and Commissioner of Justice in Borno State, Monguno has a rich profile. He was elected to the House in 2007 and has remained in the chamber since then. One thing that goes for the lawmaker is that he is seen by many of his colleagues as a firm leader. He is also respected for his humility, same attribute that endeared the outgoing speaker to many of his colleagues. So far he has several lawmakers from his zone who are openly campaigning for him.
However, whether or not he will realise his ambition of heading the chamber will depend largely on APC zoning arrangement.
Ajibola Isreal Famurewa
Representing Osun State, Atakumosa/ East/West & Ilesa East /West Federal Constituency, Israel is on his second term in the House. He was born on July 13,1965. Like other contestants , the lawmaker who is respected for his punctuality to plenary and contribution to debates believes that he has an edge over other contestants in terms of experience . As is the case with other contestants , the zoning arrangement of APC will determine if Isreal will continue with his aspiration. He is from South west, the zone that the Vice President-elect hails from.
Conclusion:
Although, unlike the general elections, the contestants are not throwing mud and tackles at one another. The race is still suffused with intrigues and drama. The permutation of how each aspirant will fare in the contest is being thrown up at every moment. The belief is that since North West and North East command the highest voting blocs with 90 and 70 lawmakers respectively, any aspirant that is able to convince the two zones to back him will carry the day. While that fact cannot be contested, the truth is that the fate of the contest is more in the hands of the APC leadership than the zones. At the end of the day, any zone that the party resolves should produce Tambuwal’s successor will have one of their indigenes in the house emerging as the new speaker. For now, it is all hope against hope.
BY IHEANACHO NWOSU,ABUJA
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